How BTC Trader Sentiment Informs GNY's ML Product Development
Market data provides the basis for cryptocurrency predictions as we explored in our previous blog post: Predict Bitcoin Daily Price Volatility With Machine Learning. Additionally collective trader sentiment is another important element that is worth factoring into your trading moves. Understanding this the GNY team has drilled down into trader sentiment to extract their feelings and opinions. These valuable data points enable us to continually improve our BTC Range Report product. In this blog post we share some of our recent trader sentiment findings. We will also share examples of how this research has been noticed by major financial news platforms.
The BTC Range Report from GNY is a powerful upgrade for cryptocurrency traders who commonly make predictions on what they see using experience and intuition. In our mission to closely align our product with those trader’s needs and wants GNY.IO commissioned the research company Pureprofile to survey 100 Bitcoin traders who trade at least $1,000 a month in the cryptocurrency. The survey was conducted in December 2021 with respondents from the UK, US, Germany, Netherlands, Nigeria, Switzerland, Vietnam, and the Philippines – countries that have some of the largest Bitcoin trading markets in the world.
We posed the following questions:
What dollar amount do you trade in Bitcoin per month?
Result: 25% of those surveyed are trading $4,000 or more. Nearly one in three (30%) trade between $2,000 and $4,000 a month. Just 11% say they trade around $1,000 a month. Further info gained was that 44% of the traders were aged 34 or under. Only 59% of these Bitcoin traders say their partners know the value of their trading. Some 17% say their partners don’t know they trade at all.
What we learned: Bitcoin has attracted an army of serious traders that is growing rapidly in number.
How many exchanges do you use when trading Bitcoin?
Result: 92% of respondents said they use more than one exchange when trading Bitcoin. Some 29% say they use five or more, and one in 20 (5%) use over ten exchanges. A follow up question revealed that 46% of the Bitcoin traders claim to have suffered losses from sending the cryptocurrency to fraudulent or inaccessible addresses. Some 38% say they have suffered from security breaches and improper storage of their Bitcoin. 35% admit to forgetting a password to a wallet.
What we learned: Our findings show the extent to which some traders have lost Bitcoin through scams or just forgetting passwords to wallets. Thankfully, the cryptocurrency and digital asset industry is making huge strides in improving infrastructure and security. This should allow traders to focus more on trying to trade the volatility and price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
What would happen to your level of Bitcoin trading if you had greater confidence in Bitcoin volatility predictive tools?
94% stated they would trade more if they had greater confidence in Bitcoin volatility predictive tools. In reply to a follow-up question some 65% believe it would lead to a double-digit percentage increase in their level of trading If they had more trust in them, with 10% saying it would rise by at least 50%.
What we learned: The quality of volatility predictive tools needs to improve and as a result their usage increase as the market develops. Improved data on the price movements in Bitcoin and the greater use of artificial intelligence will drive this.
How much more did serious Bitcoin traders trade in the cryptocurrency in 2021 when compared to 2020?
83% of traders who were surveyed believe their level of trading in the cryptocurrency increased in 2021 when compared to 2020. A key reason for this was price volatility. 43% of serious Bitcoin traders increased their level of buying during periods of volatility, compared to 37% who sold more. Only 20% said their level of trading did not change when volatility increased.
What we learned: 2021 was clearly a busy year for trading Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. High levels of volatility were a key driver of this. Many traders see these huge price swings in valuation as an opportunity to trade more.
Do you expect the level of volatility in the price of Bitcoin to increase dramatically in 2022?
One in five (22%) of Bitcoin traders who trade at least $1,000 a month in the cryptocurrency expect the level of volatility in the price of Bitcoin to increase dramatically in 2022. A further 57% say it will increase slightly. Only 18% expect it to fall or stay the same, according to our study. Some 38% said they expect more security breaches and more being openly disclosed will increase volatility. While 38% said volatility will also be fueled by more big companies buying Bitcoin and talking about their holdings. Nearly one in three (29%) said they expect more regulatory news from around the world to increase price volatility in cryptocurrencies in 2022.
What we learned: Our study suggests traders expect 2022 will see a rise in levels of volatility. This presents a huge opportunity for traders to improve their returns, but they are also at greater risk of suffering losses. They need to make more use of trading tools that, for example, help predict future price movements.
This year, how much more do you expect to trade in Bitcoin when compared to 2021?
Some 85% of traders surveyed who trade at least $1,000 a month in Bitcoin expect the level of trading they do in the cryptocurrency to increase in 2022. Nearly half (49%) expect their level of trading to increase dramatically. Whilst only 10% said they expect it to stay the same as last year, and just 2% anticipate it will fall. When it comes to how much more these serious traders expect to trade in Bitcoin in 2022, 39% anticipate they will trade at least $10,000 more. Nearly one in 20 are expecting to increase trading by $30,000 or more.
62% of serious Bitcoin traders expect it to finish the year at over $58,000. Some 9% think it will be between $75,000 and $100,000 a coin, 10% say it will be between $100,000 and $125,000. 4% expect it to finish the year with a higher valuation than this. Just 15% believe it will be at $40,000 or more.
What we learned: Our research shows that Bitcoin traders are optimistic about the prospects for the cryptocurrency this year. This helps explain why the vast majority expect to increase their level of trading.
Valuing both human and machine
Effective trading of BTC takes deep analysis of hundreds of data points. The BTC Range Report from GNY utilises our patent pending machine learning, specialised neural nets and a custom RSI to carry out this analysis for traders. It then expands upon the results of this analysis to produce a data-driven 7 day forecast for Bitcoin’s moves. This ML tech, unique to GNY, correctly identifies repeatable patterns, and incorporates learning components that constantly adapt to ever-changing data. It does this by responding to millions of independent variable features while using hundreds of machine learning algorithms in parallel.
What our machine learning observes and considers is impossible to complete with the human mind or eye alone. However, where the GNY team sees real value in human input is in the gauging of sentiment and emotion as it relates to the cryptocurrency markets. We will continue to use the extra data points such as those from our Bitcoin trader survey to inform our products’ features. We feel this additional human input furthers our mission to bring powerful machine learning tools to the crypto community.